With the United States in an active war against Iran, the Persian Gulf country’s participation in the 2026 World Cup appears to very much be in doubt.
The U.S. and Israel began striking Iran on Feb. 28 in a campaign that killed the nation’s supreme leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, and dozens of top officials.
How long the conflict will last is very much unknown. President Donald Trump told CNN on Monday, March 2 that he expected the operation would go on four weeks, but added his belief that it was ahead of schedule.
The World Cup will be co-hosted by the United States, Mexico and Canada and will run from June 11 to July 19.
There appear to be several ways that Iran would not make it to the United States this summer. Iran could boycott the tournament, it could withdraw due to safety concerns, or the U.S. government could simply not allow it to enter the country, among other possibilities.
Already, visitors from Iran are set to be barred from entering the United States under a travel ban that the Trump administration announced in June. There is an exemption for athletes, coaches and support staff from teams in the World Cup.
There is no precedent for a country participating in a World Cup hosted by a country it is at war with, so it’s difficult to make predictions. Also, many weeks remain between now and June, with myriad developments possible.
That said, here is what we do know about the ongoing situation involving Iran and the World Cup.
What has been said?
In the immediate aftermath of the attacks on Saturday, Feb. 28, FIFA secretary general Mattias Grafstrom said his organization was focused on ‘all the teams participating’ in the World Cup as planned.
Grafstrom’s words are the only comment so far from FIFA. Notably, FIFA president Gianni Infantino has yet to issue any kind of response to the attack led by Trump — who was controversially awarded the inaugural FIFA Peace Prize at the World Cup Draw in December.
USA TODAY Sports has reached out to FIFA for comment.
After the attacks, the president of Iran’s soccer federation cast doubt on his country’s participation in the World Cup.
‘What is certain is that after this attack, we cannot be expected to look forward to the World Cup with hope,’ Mehdi Taj told Iran state television over the weekend.
Who could replace Iran?
Under FIFA regulations, the governing body has broad latitude to replace a country that withdraws from a World Cup.
According to Article 6.7 of FIFA’s World Cup regulations: “If any Participating Member Association withdraws and/or is excluded from the FIFA World Cup 26, FIFA shall decide on the matter at its sole discretion and take whatever action is deemed necessary.’
FIFA’s first option could be to move forward with 47 teams instead of 48, and have Group G operate with just three teams. Currently, the top two finishers from all 12 groups will advance to the round of 32 along with the eight best third-place teams.
Another option would be to replace Iran with a different team from the Asian Football Confederation (AFC).
The next team up could be Iraq, which qualified for an inter-confederation playoff later this month in Mexico. Iraq will face either Bolivia or Suriname on March 31 with a spot in the World Cup on the line.
If Iraq takes Iran’s place at the World Cup, the United Arab Emirates would appear next in line to take Iraq’s place in the inter-confederation playoff. Iraq defeated the UAE in an AFC playoff in November to clinch a berth in the inter-confederation playoff.
Of course, with broad discretion, FIFA could theoretically replace Iran with any team it wants, including those from outside the AFC.
Has this happened before?
There is very little precedent for what is currently unfolding across the Middle East.
There have been nine countries – and one entire continent – that have boycotted the World Cup since its first edition in 1930. But it’s been decades since a boycott took place.
The last time countries withdrew from a World Cup after qualifying was in 1950. The most recent boycott was in 1974, the Soviet Union refused to play Chile in a playoff to reach the World Cup.
And there does not appear to be any instance when one country played a World Cup in a country against which it was engaged in a war.
The World Cups in 1942 and 1946 were both canceled due to World War II.