DENVER – Could’ve. Would’ve. Should’ve.
Sean Payton could sure use those three points about now. The Denver Broncos lost a three-point game with a trip to Super Bowl 60 on the line, and for all the twists and turns at Empower Field on Jan. 25, there’s no escaping the bold decision by Payton that backfired.
Rather than go for a chip-shot field goal that could have extended the Broncos lead to 10-0 early in the second quarter against the New England Patriots, Payton decided to go for the Mile High jugular when facing a fourth-and-one at the 14-yard line.
Oops.
The naked bootleg pass from Jarrett Stidham to R.J. Harvey in the right flat came much closer to being intercepted than completed as the Patriots blew up the play with a heavy rush up the middle.
“I just felt like, man, we had momentum,” Payton explained in his postgame news conference. “To go up 14, I felt like we had a good call.”
Well, given the hindsight provided by a 10-7 loss in the AFC championship game, turns out it was a terrible call.
“We thought they were going to fake it, line up and not hike it,” Patriots defensive tackle Christian Barmore told USA TODAY Sports, amid a festive visitor’s locker room. “But they didn’t. They were really going for it.
“When they did that, they made a mistake.”
The moral of the story: Take the points.
Added Barmore, “That’s their call, man. We can’t control that. But when we’re out there, we’re doing what we’ve got to do.”
Hey, the play undoubtedly looked good enough to Payton on paper. And they were serious about running it, rather than using cadence to try baiting New England into a penalty. In this day and age, it’s hardly a shock when coaches pass up potential points and go for it on fourth down in the red zone. So there’s that. Besides, the Broncos defense started on such a tear that the Patriots mustered all of 12 net yards in the first quarter.
All of that was included in Payton’s decision-making process. But the risk, it turns out, was greater than the potential reward.
Momentum?
Yeah, Payton’s team had it – even with Stidham, the backup quarterback filling in for the injured Bo Nix – and then squandered it.
Broncos’ fourth-down failure changed game’s course
The fourth-down call handed the momentum over to Mike Vrabel’s team on a silver platter. Payton, who has 194 NFL victories on his resume, should have known better. Going up 14-zip would have been sweet. But coming away with nothing changed the course of the game.
And this was before Mother Nature came blowing through in the second half with a wintry mix that changed the game’s complexion. Before the Broncos had another play blown up that resulted in the turnover by Stidham that allowed the Patriots to score a quick, game-tying touchdown just before halftime.
Sure, there were things that were unforeseen. But with the high stakes of a Super Bowl in play, it’s better to be safe than sorry. Sometimes, being aggressive is a bit much. Old-school philosophy would have worked. Just take the points. Especially when you’re already needing to reduce pressure on the backup quarterback.
“There will always be second thoughts,” Payton said.
Payton doesn’t even need to see the film to realize the Broncos offense (which lost starting running back J.K. Dobbins to a foot injury in midseason) didn’t run the ball well enough. They averaged just 3.3 yards per carry and didn’t have a run longer than nine yards, while the Patriots ran 38 times for 141 yards. There were too many dropped passes – poor conditions or not – that continued a pattern evident all season.
Yet the coach sounded like he will start by looking in the mirror.
“I’m going to look at it and be critical of myself,” he said.
Yes, the buck stops with Payton.
“It starts with the head coach,” he said. “You don’t know it is going to be this three-point game, but it became apparent that with each possession, a field goal, that type of thing, was going to be real important. We weren’t able to get it done. That’s tough in this game. Especially in this game.”
Payton, who has rebuilt the Broncos in three years, was in striking range of becoming the first coach to ever win Super Bowls with two different franchises. Now he’s a coach who has twice suffered heartbreaking defeats in conference championships after earning the No. 1 seed in the playoffs. He will probably always wonder how this one got away.
After that fateful fourth-down decision, the Broncos had eight more possessions and never advanced back to the red zone. They had two drives end with missed field goals, and two drives that went three-and-out. They had the two Stidham turnovers.
And they now have some hard-knock lessons to take into a long offseason.
Contact Jarrett Bell at jbell@usatoday.com or follow on X: @JarrettBell