In recent years, at least, September just hasn’t been Notre Dame’s month. A quick history lesson:
The Fighting Irish dropped their first two games of 2022, the second to Marshall as a heavy favorite, casting a critical eye on coach Marcus Freeman just weeks into his first full season.
The 2023 team lost 17-14 to Ohio State, allowing the game-winning touchdown with one second left and only 10 defenders on the field.
A year ago, Notre Dame was stunned by Northern Illinois before rallying and regrouping to reach the College Football Playoff national championship game.
The No. 8 Irish enter Saturday’s home game against No. 17 Texas A&M wit a 27-24 loss to No. 6 Miami already on their résumé, cranking up the intensity of this already highly anticipated matchup.
“You can only hang your hat for so long,” defensive end Boubacar Traore said. “We’ve got another game to play. Yeah, we lost, but we’ve got another opportunity.”
At least Notre Dame can lean on recent history, which strongly suggests that one loss is survivable under the expanded playoff format regardless of the opponent. But two might be difficult to overcome given the nature of this year’s schedule, which has no future opponents currently ranked in the US LBM Coaches Poll.
That’s the overarching theme heading into the weekend: Notre Dame may not have to win on Saturday, but it’s easy to see how a loss could eventually serve as an eliminator when the playoff selection committee constructs the postseason bracket.
Keys to victory on offense against Texas A&M
While new quarterback CJ Carr was the center of attention after the loss to the Hurricanes, a bigger key was the performance of a running game that finished with 93 yards on 28 carries. The Irish had just one rushing touchdown after scoring at least twice on the ground in every regular-season game of 2024.
A major strength last year, the offensive line struggled against Miami despite returning four starters. While not overly critical of that group’s production against a talented defensive front, “the standard is to play higher,” Freeman said.
The Irish have to establish the running game to take pressure off Carr, who had 221 passing yards and three touchdowns with an interception in the opener.
“He showed he’s ready, he’s capable,” Freeman said of the redshirt freshman. “We have to be able to run the football. But we feel like CJ can execute the entire game plan, the entire playbook. He’s a special player.”
Notre Dame defense looks to bounce back
On the defensive side, the biggest key will be developing a pass rush after an ineffective showing against Miami.
Any tentativeness seen in that loss may be the result of the schematic tweaks installed by new coordinator Chris Ash. But Notre Dame can’t afford to be passive against the Aggies and quarterback Marcell Reed, a dual-threat sophomore who heads into South Bend as the only quarterback in the Bowl Subdivision with more than five passing touchdowns without an interception and at least 100 rushing yards.
This is a different offense than the one that struggled to gain traction in last year’s 23-13 loss to the Irish. The Aggies overhauled their receiver corps to juice Reed’s development, bringing in proven Power Four commodities such as former Mississippi State transfer Mario Craver and former North Carolina State transfer KC Concepcion.
Craver leads A&M with 13 receptions for 236 yards. Concepcion is second with 145 yards and had an 80-yard punt return for a score in the season-opening win against Texas-San Antonio.
Given what the Aggies bring to the table, a win on Saturday will require dramatic improvement from Notre Dame on both sides of the line of scrimmage.
“When we reach our full potential as a team, we’re the best team in the country,” said wide receiver Jaden Greathouse. “There’s nobody that can stop us.”
Is this really a must-win game for the Fighting Irish?
Almost, not but quite.
Ten wins is probably the magic number for most Power Four contenders, especially those with Notre Dame’s pedigree and national reputation. And pulling off double-digit wins after two losses right out of the gate would be an asset for the Fighting Irish, who would enter the postseason as one of the hottest teams in the country.
But a pair of factors could eventually make a loss on Saturday what eventually prevents the Irish from a return trip to the playoff.
The first is the schedule. It’s possible that opponents such as Southern California, North Carolina State, Navy and Pittsburgh climb into the national rankings, giving Notre Dame the credentials to make the 12-team field with two defeats. It’s also possible that the Irish would enter the postseason with zero ranked wins.
And those two losses could be crucial because of the inevitable comparison with at-large contenders from the ACC and SEC. That could be even more damaging to Notre Dame’s chances should the Hurricanes and Aggies fail to win their respective leagues.
In the case where all three teams have an identical number of wins, Notre Dame would head into December already behind Miami and A&M in the postseason debate and need help from other Power Four leagues to clear a path back to the playoff.