UConn and Vanderbilt are the lone remaining undefeated teams in women’s college basketball.
While Vanderbilt is building a resume that could get the Commodores their first top 16 seed since 2007, it’s business as usual for the Huskies. In almost every metric, UConn is No. 1. They lead the nation in NET, Her Hoop Stats Rating and Torvik. They’re No. 1 in ESPN’s bracketology, the AP Top 25 Poll and USA Today’s Coaches Poll. They are second in the newest metric the committee is considering this year, Wins Above Bubble, where UCLA is No. 1.
And it’s worth considering the possibility of coach Cori Close’s Bruins usurping UConn for the No. 1 overall seed in the NCAA Tournament. Someone making that case will likely point to this: UCLA has and will continue to play a tougher schedule, and the Bruins have more impressive wins.
UCLA is first in NET strength of schedule while UConn is sixth. The average NET of UCLA’s opponents ranks third, while UConn is fourth.
And the Bruins have more Quad 1 wins than anyone in the country with a 10-1 record in those games. UConn is 5-0 in Quad 1 games. No other team in the nation has double-digit Quad 1 wins, as Louisville is second with six.
What could make UCLA’s resume more impressive than UConn’s on Selection Sunday is the Bruins will have the opportunity to pile up several more Quad 1 wins, while the Huskies won’t. That’s the difference between playing in the Big Ten and Big East.
Other than its game against Tennessee on Feb. 1, the only other chance UConn will have at another Quad 1 win in the regular season will be on Feb. 18 at Villanova if the Wildcats remain in the top 40 of the NET. If Villanova creeps into the top 35 of NET by March, UConn could get another one if they meet the Wildcats in the Big East Tournament.
UCLA, meanwhile, will have six more chances to get Quad 1 victories in the regular season, plus a few more in the Big Ten Tournament. There’s a scenario where, if the Bruins run the table in the Big Ten, they’ll have more Quad 1 wins than UConn by double digits. And that will give UCLA a real argument to be the No. 1 seed in the Big Dance.
Here’s USA Today’s projection of the top 16 seeds in the women’s NCAA Tournament as of Wednesday, Jan. 21:
1. UConn
2. UCLA
3. South Carolina
4. Texas
5. Vanderbilt
6. LSU
7. Michigan
8. Louisville
9. TCU
10. Iowa
11. Michigan State
12. Kentucky
13. Maryland
14. Tennessee
15. Oklahoma
16. Duke
In the hunt: Ohio State, Baylor, Ole Miss, Texas Tech, North Carolina
Bubble Watch
Last Four In: Iowa State, Virginia, Clemson, Rhode Island
First Four Out: Virginia Tech, South Dakota State, Seton Hall, BYU
As things currently stand, four mid-major teams should have resumes good enough to earn at-large bids into the NCAA Tournament if they don’t win their conference tournaments. They are, in order of safest to least safe, Princeton, Fairfield, North Dakota State and Richmond.
Teams from the Power 4 and Big East that are on the bubble should be rooting for these teams to win their conference tournaments, otherwise they would create bid-stealing situations and begin forcing teams to the wrong side of the bubble.
If there’s a scenario for a mid-major conference to earn three bids to March Madness — like the Ivy League did last season — the Atlantic 10 has the best chance of making it a reality. It would go something like this: Rhode Island and Richmond continue to pile up wins throughout the rest of the regular season to cement their resumes, and then one of them loses to Davidson in the A-10 title game, giving the Wildcats the automatic bid and putting the Rams and Spiders on the line for at-large nods.
With a handful of teams on the bubble, the ACC is one conference hoping this potential situation doesn’t come to fruition.