Saturday’s NFL playoff divisional round includes an all-NFC West battle in Seattle.
The San Francisco 49ers beat the Seattle Seahawks at Lumen Field in Week 1 of the regular season. Seattle returned the favor on the 49ers’ home turf in Week 18. The stakes are higher in the season’s rubber match, with a chance to play in the NFC championship game on the line.
Kyle Shanahan’s club has found ways to win despite being ravaged by injuries on both sides of the football. The injury bug hit the 49ers again last week when star tight end George Kittle ruptured his Achilles.
The well-rested Seahawks are led by one of the NFL’s stingiest defenses. Seattle gave up a league-low 17.2 points per game during the regular season. The Seahawks offense is led by NFL Offensive Player of the Year candidate Jaxon Smith-Njigba. The standout wide receiver produced a league-high 1,793 yards in the regular season.
San Francisco 49ers vs. Seattle Seahawks odds
The Seahawks are a 7.5-point favorite, according to the BetMGM NFL odds.
Spread: Seahawks (-7.5)
Moneyline: Seahawks (-375); 49ers (+300)
Over/under: 45.5
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49ers vs. Seahawks divisional matchups to watch
These two NFC West rivals know each other well. They split the regular season series. The No. 1 seed Seahawks are well-rested after a bye during the wild-card round. But the battle-tested 49ers are a confident team coming off a big win over the Super Bowl 59 champion Philadelphia Eagles.
Here are the key matchups to watch:
49ers pass defense vs. Jaxon Smith-Njigba
Smith-Njigba tallied 15 catches for 208 yards in two games against the 49ers this season. Deommodore Lenoir is San Francisco’s best cornerback.
Lenoir didn’t allow a catch when he was in coverage against Smith-Njigba during the regular season, but Smith-Njigba’s had a decided advantage against San Francisco’s other cornerbacks.
Smith-Njigba lines up out wide and in the slot. Lenoir mostly plays on the outside. The 49ers likely won’t travel Lenoir with Smith-Njigba, but the cornerback could cover him in key situational moments.
Can the 49ers offense score enough against Seattle’s defense?
The Seahawks had the NFL’s top scoring defense in the regular season. They held the 49ers to just three points in a Week 18 victory. Brock Purdy was held to 127 passing yards, the 49ers had nine first downs and converted only two of nine third-down attempts.
Can the 49ers move the football without Kittle? Expect a heavy dosage of Christian McCaffrey, and maybe a couple trick plays to manufacture some explosive gains.
The Seahawks defense will likely key in on McCaffrey. Shanahan’s playcalling and the 49ers’ ability to sustain drives and reach the end zone is key.
Will Seahawks defense contain Christian McCaffrey
McCaffrey registered 2,126 yards from scrimmage this year, the second most in the NFL.
The running back had 142 yards from scrimmage in San Francisco’s Week 1 win against Seattle. He was held to 57 yards from scrimmage in the 49ers’ Week 18 loss.
The Seahawks will likely win the game if they can contain McCaffrey. Purdy conducts the 49ers offense, but McCaffrey is the engine.
Early prediction for 49ers vs. Seahawks divisional-round game
Seahawks 25, 49ers 20
The injury-riddled 49ers deserve a lot of credit for advancing to the divisional round. Kittle’s Achilles injury last week was a sobering reminder of what a healthy 49ers team would’ve looked like. At some point injuries are going to catch up to Kyle Shanahan’s team. A well-rested Seahawks team gets the victory.