Every week for the duration of the 2025 regular season, USA TODAY Sports will provide timely updates to the NFL’s ever-evolving playoff picture − typically starting Sunday afternoon and then moving forward for the remainder of the week (through Monday’s and Thursday’s games or Saturday’s, if applicable. And, when the holidays roll around, we’ll be watching then, too).
What just happened? What does it mean? What are the pertinent factors (and, perhaps, tiebreakers) prominently in play as each conference’s seven-team bracket begins to crystallize? All will be explained and analyzed up to the point when the postseason field is finalized on Sunday, Jan. 4.
Here’s where things stand with Week 16 nearly complete:
NFC playoff picture
x − 1. Seattle Seahawks (12-3), NFC West leaders: Splitting their season series with the Rams in Thursday night’s classic means they’ll wind up with the No. 1 seed if they simply win their final two games. Remaining schedule: at Panthers, at 49ers
x − 2. Chicago Bears (11-4), NFC North leaders: A remarkable overtime win against Green Bay on Saturday night helped them clinch a playoff berth − cemented by Detroit’s loss Sunday. Chicago is also still in play for the NFC’s No. 1 seed. Remaining schedule: at 49ers, vs. Lions
y – 3. Philadelphia Eagles (10-5), NFC East champions: With Saturday’s defeat of Washington, they became the first team this season to wrap up a division − and the first to win this division in successive years since they last did it 21 years ago. Philly’s victory also officially knocked the hated Cowboys out of playoff contention. Remaining schedule: at Bills, vs. Commanders
4. Carolina Panthers (8-7), NFC South leaders: Their defeat of the Bucs on Sunday moved them into first place. They can win the division next week with a win and Tampa Bay loss. A Week 18 defeat of the Buccaneers would also do the job regardless of circumstances. Remaining schedule: vs. Seahawks, at Buccaneers
x − 5. Los Angeles Rams (11-4), wild card No. 1: They became the first team to clinch a playoff spot but lost the inside track for home-field advantage and a first-round bye after failing to sweep Seattle. Remaining schedule: at Falcons, vs. Cardinals
x − 6. San Francisco 49ers (10-4), wild card No. 2: Win out, which would entail completing a season sweep of Seattle on the final weekend of the regular season, and the Niners would get the No. 1 seed. Detroit’s loss Sunday clinched their spot in the postseason field. Remaining schedule: at Colts, vs. Bears, vs. Seahawks
7. Green Bay Packers (9-5-1), wild card No. 3:They were undermanned going into Saturday night, then it got worse. But the Pack should have gotten out of Chicago with a win. At least Detroit’s loss allowed Green Bay to maintain its 1½-game lead over the Lions in the wild-card standings. One more Packers win or Lions loss puts Green Bay into the field. Remaining schedule: vs. Ravens, at Vikings
8. Detroit Lions (8-7), in the hunt: Sunday’s loss not only locked two of their competitors (Chicago and San Francisco) into the field, it left the Lions on life support. Detroit needs to win its final two games and hope the Pack lose theirs in order to qualify. Remaining schedule: at Vikings, at Bears
9. Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-8), in the hunt: Sunday’s loss in Charlotte was Tampa Bay’s sixth in its last seven outings. But win their last two games, and the Bucs will retain the NFC South crown by a one-game margin in the common-games tiebreaker over Carolina (assuming the Panthers also finish 9-8 overall). Remaining schedule: at Dolphins, vs. Panthers
AFC playoff picture
x − 1. Denver Broncos (12-3), AFC West leaders: They came into the day with the possibility of clinching home-field advantage and the first-round bye. A decisive loss to Jacksonville re-opened that door to New England. Still, win out and Denver gets the top seed. Remaining schedule: at Chiefs, vs. Chargers
x − 2. New England Patriots (12-3), AFC East leaders: Officially headed to the playoffs, the Pats are also still in driver’s seat to win AFC East and just a tiebreaker (common games) of sitting atop the conference. Remaining schedule: at Jets, vs. Dolphins.
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (11-4), AFC South leaders: They won their seventh straight Sunday with an impressive win over Denver but need help from the 49ers on Monday to wrap up a spot in Week 19. Remaining schedule: vs. Colts, at Titans
4. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-6), AFC North leaders: Their win Sunday in Motown clinched spots in the NFC field for the Bears and 49ers. No matter what else happens over the next two games, sweep the Ravens, and Pittsburgh secures the division. A win next week in Cleveland will also sew up the division. Remaining schedule: at Browns, vs. Ravens
5. Los Angeles Chargers (11-4), wild card No. 1: The Bolts have now won seven of eight but need a little more help this weekend to secure back-to-back postseason trips. A half-game advantage in AFC games (8-2) keeps them ahead of Buffalo. Win out, and the Chargers win the AFC West … and maybe more. Remaining schedule: vs. Texans, at Broncos
6. Buffalo Bills (11-4), wild card No. 1: Still alive to win their sixth straight AFC East crown, the Bills also need some outside help to lock up a playoff bid this weekend. Remaining schedule: vs. Eagles, vs. Jets
7. Houston Texans (10-5), wild card No. 3: They’ve won eight of nine, including seven in a row but haven’t been able to overtake similarly surging Jacksonville yet for the top spot in the AFC South. Houston’s win prevented the Bills, Chargers and Jags from clinching playoff spots Sunday. Remaining schedule: at Chargers, vs. Colts
8. Indianapolis Colts (8-6), in the hunt: Now in the hands of 44-year-old QB Philip Rivers, they face a steep climb back to relevance − their 7-1 start already feeling like ancient history. And the Colts’ schedule doesn’t let up henceforth, including Monday night’s home date with San Francisco. Remaining schedule: vs. 49ers, vs. Jaguars, at Texans
9. Baltimore Ravens (7-8), in the hunt: The lost control of their playoff path with Sunday night’s loss to New England and can be eliminated next weekend by a Pittsburgh win. Remaining schedule: vs. Patriots, at Packers, at Steelers
NFL playoff-clinching scenarios for Week 17 (incomplete)
Pittsburgh clinches AFC North with:
Win OR
Ravens loss
Carolina clinches NFC South with:
Win + Buccaneers loss
Green Bay clinches playoff berth with:
Win OR
Lions loss
NFL playoff-clinching scenarios for Week 16
Buffalo clinches playoff berth with:
Colts loss or tie
Jacksonville clinches playoff berth with:
Colts loss or tie
Los Angeles Chargers clinch playoff berth with:
Colts loss or tie
NFL teams eliminated from playoff contention in 2025
x – clinched playoff berth
y – clinched division
z – clinched home-field advantage, first-round bye